Dr. Stamos Stournas*, answers on the present and future of Global Energy Mix

Q: Could the phrase "energy crisis" depict the near future? 

You know, this is a subject of discussion for 30 years with colleagues at conferences and workplaces. Discussions, based of course on the fact that sometime in the future, all the deposits of mineral resources will end. The important question, however, is when this will happen. Today we have confirmed more recoverable oil reserves than we had 30 years ago. And 30 years ago, we had confirmed less reserves than those used afterwards. Moreover, one should always have in mind the phrase "recoverable mineral resources": they are the reserves, able to bring profit when being exploited. The high price of oil, therefore, at times, favors the extraction of parts that are more costly to be extracted in other times. Extracting a significant amount and increasing the supply, pusches the price down, making some fields, less interest. What I mean is that a constant amount of economically extractable oil, is usually there. There are cycles, that depend on technology and demand. In general, i believe that problems may occur in approximately 100 years. It would be wise to remember that any graph showing peak oil extraction should be taking into account the latest technology advancements and of course, the demand of fossil fuels.

Q: So, you are saying that scenarios heard from time to time, are a bit stiff to believe.

My view is that when the problem becomes acute, life-style will not be much affected. As the years pass, the impact of peak oil, will be less. Also, remember that the three main users of oil are: industry, residences and transport. In recent years, the one that showed growing requirements of oil, is transport. Industry and residences can more easily become independent of oil and right now, this is what they are doing. There is also a reason for the transfers can not gain their independence so easily. First of all, the infrastructure. Consider the time and cost needed to build a network of "alternative fuel" stations. Moreover, one should keep in mind the engines: they evolve for over a hundred years and strategically, they should keep on being used for many years to come. Right now, internal combustion engines are optimized for gasoline and diesel. Thus, most efforts are made to change the format of the engines, converting them to use other fuels, than create new ones. In other words, it is more acceptable to convert natural gas into gasoline for use by the existing engines, rather than changing the engine itself.

Q: Natural gas, diesel, petrol, coal are all environmentally harmful. 

There is no doubt that using oil, gas and coal as fuels aggrevate global warming. However let us consider this: carbon derived from the fermentation of plant organisms and oil from zoic organisms. 200 million years ago, these organisms flourished, buried and fermented. This time, the Earth's atmosphere was much like that of Venus today: large amounts of CO2, used by plants to grow and eventually become raw material for the creation of large hydrocarbon deposits. Meanwhile, CO2 decreased making the atmosphere able to sustain human life. Some imply that today, using the hydrocarbons created by the life that flourished in the world then, we tend to push the climate in standards where man could not survive. This is certainly a strong argument. What is not said, however, is that about 95% of the carbon created by the fermentation of these organisms, dispersed on nearly everything we can hold in our hands today. This ultimately means that concentrations of carbon converted into fossil fuel reserves is about 1-2%. So even if we were able to drain the earth's reserves it would be impossible to make the atmosphere toxic to an extent that it would not sustain human life. Of course I'm not saying that this 1-2% is not enough to cause problems. What I'm saying is that things are not so severe as some imply.

Q: Improving technology has given us the opportunity to extract more oil than expected. On the other hand, economic growth requires increasing quantities of fossil fuels. For the time being at least.

That's right. Many countries are now boosting their economy, augmenting at the same time the standard of living of their inhabitants. Right now, there is a debate between developed and developing countries on the means of oil consumption and environmental friendliness. Developing countries of course, argue that since the others used fossil fuels to advance, this is what they will do. This is a strong statement and i do not really know what someone could answer.

Q: Alternative energy sources beyond the renewable?

Many developing countries produce biofuels. This however, sometimes means denying citizens their food. Ethanol for example, is produced from corn. Many producers who probably are landowners prefer to sell their production expensive in Europe than to supply the local market -which is less profitable. This is called "Food vs Fuel". The optimal use of biofuels could come from the by-products of crops. There are no silver bullets in the energy sector. Each country should see what works and what can be better exploited. If some fuels are very burdensome for the environment, we should find better ways to use them
 

Q: Could Hydrogen be a solution for the future?
The element with the smallest molecule. If a baloon is inflated with hydrogen, it will be deflated much faster compared to one inflated with air. So in order to use it, we should increase its density. Also remember that when mixed with oxygen, it is very explosive. This means that if it is to be used as fuel say for cars, it is very likely to provoke major problems, mostly due to untrained staff. Moreover, there is again the issue of infrastructure. A nice thought about hydrogen, is to be produced by electrolysis of water and not from hydrocarbons. Electrolysis, that could be done with the use of solar energy. I believe that hydrogen will play an important role in the future, but not yet.

*Dr. Stamos Stournas got his Chemistry Degree in Harvard University, continuing his studies for Master's and PhD degrees in Columbia. After working for ten years in the USA for Mobil, he went back to Greece. Right now, he is the Director of the "Liquid Fuels' and Lubricants' Technology Lab" in the Polytechnic University of Athens.